A Pullback Doesn't Mean It's Over

Short-term weakness would be a good thing for bulls.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 31% Upside Volume 

• Advance/Decline: 29% Advance

• VIX: ~$18.75

The trend has clearly been to the upside, but my oh my the S&P could use a rest. That was clear on Tuesday as it tried to push to new highs and failed. Specifically, the S&P tried to rally on the JOLTs data, failed to hold above Monday’s high, then broke back below the March high and last week’s high. 

The bearish reversal doesn’t necessarily deal a death-blow to the bulls, but it could give us a much-needed rest after the index rallied in 7 of the prior 8 sessions. 

SPY

Call me crazy, but I would absolutely love a test of the 10-day, 50-day combo and the 50% retracement. 

That’s one of those setups where it could fail, but the R/R is very clearly on the buyers’ side. 

• Key Pivot: $411.37

• Upside Levels (SPY): $409.75 to $410.25 (last week + month’s high, 78.6% retrace), $412, $414.50 to $415

• Downside Levels (SPY): $407.50-ish, 10-ema on 4-Hour chart, $402 to $403

SPX