Bank Earnings, Retail Sales Drive Pre-Market Volatility
Banks could very well set the tone for the day.
Technical Edge —
NYSE Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 71% Advance
VIX: ~$17.75
Something stood out to me Wednesday, which is how well the VIX held up (basically flat) while the S&P gave us that nasty bearish reversal.
There’s something else I want to point out, which is how well defensive stocks are performing right now. Names like KO, PEP, PG, MCD, JNJ, the XLP and others are trending higher, riding multi-week winning streaks and in some cases, hitting all-time highs. So that’s some interesting action to note.
The banks are trading pretty well after earnings and we’ll have to see how they trade once the conference calls get going. If they do well, it could/should pull the S&P 500 higher.
S&P 500 — ES
Impressive rally by the ES yesterday, but guess where it ran out of steam? Yep, the same spot it topped out last week and right near yesterday’s high (the 4170s). Bank earnings on tap, but did Thursday’s action set up more upside for Fry-day? Feels that way.
Upside Levels: 4172-78, 4200, 4217-25
Downside levels: 4142.50 (March high), 4115, 4095-4100, 4073-76
SPY
Look at the way that 10-day ema held, even though we didn’t get a complete tag of it. And the way the S&P ignored Wednesday’s red bar? Very impressive stuff.
At this juncture, simply looks like a bull consolidation pattern to short-term moving average support and now a rotation/continuation to the upside.
Upside Levels: $415 to $416, $418, $421
Downside Levels: $412, $409.70-ish10-day ema, $405.50 to $406
SPX
4150 held almost to the tick on Thursday.
Upside Levels: 4150, 4172-75, 4195-4200
Downside Levels: 4133, 10-ema, 4070-75
QQQ
The QQQ cleared 5 days worth of highs on Thursday and closed near session highs. A daily-up rotation over $319.65 could open the door back up to the March/Q1 high of $321+
On the downside, the “want to hold” level is the 10-day ema and VWAP measure from the ATH. The “need to hold” level is ~$313.50.
TLT
Two-day low of $105.88 and a heavy close Thursday. A daily-down rotation below $105.88 could open the door down to $104, then potentially put that 61.8% retrace and gap-fill in play between $102.50 and $102.75.
Stop-loss could be $107 to $107.50-ish (more aggressive traders would skew toward the latter).
Open Positions
Bold are the trades with recent updates.
Italics show means the trade is closed.
Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)
** = previous trade setup we are stalking.
FSLR, NVDA, QQQ, AAPL, down to runners. Congrats, all. Great sequence!
AAPL — for those that were swinging AAPL for the longer timeframe, we got our $165 area to trim into and as we continue to tip-toe higher, I’d say down to ½ size here or even less.
Going for $168.50 to $170 on the next tranche. Raise stops up to $160.
GE — So tight! — long from ~$94.50. Stop-loss at 30 or 60 minute close below $93 (or $93.50 if you are playing this tight vs. last week’s low).
Upside target is $96+ for ⅓ trim. Then $97+
If not long, can get long on a rotation over $94.75-$95.
LMT — Wavered early, but bounced hard and gave bulls a low to measure against. Long from $485 — Here’s the chart.
Trimmed ⅓ in planned zone of $490 to $492. Next target, down to ½ or ⅓ at $495+
Stop can either B/E or just below $485g
** MCD — Keep an eye on a reset trade in this one. ATH after ATH. Looking for 10-day ema test.
Go-To Watchlist
*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*
Relative strength leaders → Tech remains absolutely the strongest group lately.
NVDA, AMD
TSCO
MSFT, AAPL, META
PANW, FTNT
FSLR
MCD
WMT — daily-up over $150 could get $151+ and extension to new high recent highs
PEP & KO → great reset trades to the 10-ema
AQUA
GE
DKS, ULTA
LMT, RTX
GOOGL, AVGO
ULTA & LULU
MELI
Economic Calendar
