Bulls Need to Get It in Gear | Trading AAPL, Bitcoin

There are clear lines in the sand to watch now.

Technical Edge

• NYSE Breadth: 58.4% Upside Volume 

• NASDAQ Breadth:  57.9% Downside Volume 

Shortly after the open, we had 80% upside breadth on the Nasdaq and around 2:30, it made another push to the upside. However, the selling was simply too strong late in the day. 

Ending around 57% to 58% upside volume is not surprising and indicates “CHOP,” which is exactly what yesterday was. I think the rally in small caps boasted these breadth numbers up, because the S&P and Nasdaq were not that impressive, while the Dow was roughly flat on the day.

Game Plan

I think this really becomes a question of when will the buyers come back to key names? 

We’re seeing GOOGL down three straight days since popping to all-time highs on strong earnings. FB is down 30% in three sessions, AMD is off its earnings highs, while NVDA is down slightly after announcing its $40 billion ARM deal now off. AMZN has faded from its post-earnings highs for two straight days now. 

Bulls need buyers in these big names and until they get it, we will likely struggle to generate lasting rallies. Put another way, we can’t rally significantly in FAANG+TNM (TSLA, NVDA, MSFT) are in the toilet — they will act as anchors to the rally. 

On the upside, we do have a higher low to work in all of the major U.S. indices. Cryptocurrencies are trading incredibly well and even ARKK held up okay yesterday. We’re not waving the green flag necessarily, but there are positives to start building on. 

S&P 500 — ES Futures

• Feel free to extrapolate these levels to the SPY, roughly speaking. 

ES Futures | Daily

Inside day on Monday, as they continue to sell the close. The 21-day moving average remains resistance. With the Globex low coming into play near yesterday’s low, the 4462 level is acting as a line in the sand. 

A break below that’s not quickly reclaimed likely puts the 200-day moving average in play, along with Friday’s low near 4440. 

Below both measures and a failure to bounce could put last week’s low in play just below 4400. 

On the upside, we have been writing about 4510 for a few days now. That’s the level to clear and hold.

Individual Stocks, Nasdaq & Watch List + AAPL, Bitcoin

AAPL

AAPL | Daily

Inside day here, with AAPL sitting on the 10-day, 50-day and daily VWAP measure. 

Looking for an undercut of Monday’s low and a rebound or preferably a 2x daily-up rotation. But we’ll need a real bid to come into tech to get it.