Easing Up. Let the Setups Come to Us.

Some oddities are jumping out this morning too.

Technical Edge 

• NYSE Breadth: 38% Upside Volume 

• Advance/Decline: 40% Advance 

• VIX: ~$17

There are not a lot of setups jumping out to me at this moment, so we’ll continue to massage the stocks we’ve got left and focus on the indices now that Opex is out of the way. 

Some oddities across the board. 10-year yields are at 10-week highs, AAPL, NVDA, AMD, META and the SMH ETF are down 1%, yet the S&P and Nasdaq are flat. That’s as of 8 a.m. or so, but interesting that the market is ignoring that weakness for now. 

S&P 500 — ES

We always look at the daily, so I wanted to zoom out here and look at the bigger picture (although upside/downside levels are still below). 

The S&P gave us the 5-wave decline down to the 200-week moving average, but now it continues to put in higher lows while grinding against the 4220 to 4240 zone. It has been failing in this area since September. 

A weekly close above this area could set the stage for a run to 4400. That said, we could still see sub-4000 (and even the 3800s) without the pattern breaking. 

• Pivot: 4200

• Upside Levels: 4220, 4242-45

• Downside levels: 4186-4190, ~4170, 4150-55

SPY