Fed's 2-Day Meeting in Focus. Apple Breakout?

A lot to watch between now and Wednesday afternoon.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 61% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 59% Advance

• VIX: ~$22.75

When the Fed’s all said and done, which side is it going to deal a blow to? 

Put another way, will the bulls suffer or will the bears — or could it be both? Despite a world of rising rates and failing banks, the S&P continues to hold in. That’s even after declining in 4 of the last 6 weeks.

This morning the index is breaking out over downtrend resistance and, at least for now, is rotating over last week’s high. 

SPY

Tough to buy a gap-up into last week’s high and the 61.8% retrace ahead of the Fed. While it’s always possible we get a “gap-and-go,” trading around $396.50 to $397.25 as a key pivot is likely the way to go. 

My gut calls this area resistance, at least initially. However, if we can sustain above it, $400 is in play. 

• Upside Levels (SPY): $396.50 (weekly up), $397.25, $400.

• Downside Levels (SPY):$394.35, $392.50, $390. 

SPX

Same as SPY, with the following levels: 

• Upside Levels (SPY): 3975, 4000-4010, 4021

• Downside Levels (SPY): 3964 (weekly up), 3951, 3936

S&P 500 — ES