In-Line CPI Could Leave Market in Its Current Range

Let's look at the outer range levels now.

Technical Edge 

• NYSE Breadth: 45% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 39% Advance 

• VIX: ~$18

A couple of anemic sessions when it comes to volume. It seems like everyone’s waiting for the CPI number to decide what to do next. Hot numbers and traders will know the Fed is in a tough spot. Soft numbers and maybe the “Fed is done raising” chorus gains some momentum. 

Smack-dab in-line and we have a relief rally so far. Will it be enough to break us out of the trading range? Doesn’t seem like it so far, but let’s look at the bigger levels now. 

On the plus side, it should help us manage a few of our longs.

S&P 500 — ES 

There are levels in between (of course) but if we get the typical wide-range CPI reaction, it’s good to know the outer edges of the recent range. 

• Pivot: 4163

• Upside Levels: 4175-80, 4198-4206, 4242

• Downside levels: 4100, 4075-80, 4063

SPY