It Remains a Stock-Picker's Market

(And an NVDA setup is on the list)

It remains a stock-pickers market out there, with many stocks continuing to trade quite well. The Dow’s riding a 11-day win streak — which is one helluva “bear market rally” in the sellers’ minds — as shorts begin to throw in the towel. Even Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says they got this one wrong (and he was one of Wall Street’s biggest bears).

That said, bulls who get cocky here are going to be the ones that catch a quick one-two serving of humble pie.

When you can’t seem to miss a pitch and the account has grown nicely, remember to take some profits and inch up those stops. The second you feel like taking a new position with big size because you’re “on a hot streak” is the exact moment you should be trimming existing positions and exercising caution.

We’ve got GOOGL and MSFT earnings after the close today, then at 2pm on Wednesday, the Fed will likely raise rates. The real fun starts tomorrow at 2:30 with Powell’s press conference.

Technical Edge 

• NYSE Breadth: 70% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 59% Advance

• VIX: ~$14

SPY

Tried to go inside-day-and-up yesterday, and technically did so, but no in convincing fashion. With fireworks on tap tonight (MSFT and GOOGL) and tomorrow (the Fed), let’s see how the SPY does ahead of the events. 

I’m watching daily-up over ~$455. Above $455.40 and a push to the $456 to $456.50 resistance zone is in play. 

• Upside Levels: $455 to $455.35, $456 to $456.50, $459

• Downside Levels: $452.75, $451.50, ~$450 + 10-day ema

S&P 500 — ES Futures

If you look at a daily chart (not below), the 4592-95 has been a ceiling for the ES lately as buy-stops continue to build above it. 

You can see how a push through this zone gets us 4598. Over 4600 and the highs at 4609 are in play. On the downside, bulls don’t want to lose 4576, otherwise putting 4569, then 4560 in play. 

• Upside Levels: 4592-95, 4598-4600, 4610

• Downside levels: 4576, 4560 & 10-day ema, 4550

SPX

• Upside Levels: 4567.50, 4578-80, 4595-4600

• Downside Levels: 4540, 4527.50, 4505-10

NQ