It's the Bulls' Ball to Drop (Will They?)

Trades on ARKK, AMD, SPY and the dollar.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 33% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 24% Advance 

• VIX: ~$19.50

It’s okay not to be optimistic, but right now, it’s hard to get overwhelmingly bearish. We’ve had nice accumulation days on the upside and low distribution days on the declines. Breadth has been strong on the up-days and mild on the down days. 

I don’t have a very strong bias one way or another right now, and personally, I would love a retest of the low to get some more long-term allocations in place — (remember these?)

If the Fed does become more hawkish, equities will take it on the chin. But so far, we don’t know that that will be the case. And for now, the recent action has been bullish. 

S&P 500 — ES 

The pullback from ~4175 resistance has been incredibly orderly. The ES pushed up to this key zone and is now giving us a mild dip back down to active support. 

The Trade: Look for a break of yesterday’s low (4104) and ideally, a tag of the 10-day moving average. If it holds and the ES reclaims 4104, it could be a high-quality long trade. 

A break of the 10-day and a move lower could usher in tests of 4084, then 4050. 

On the upside, keep an eye on 4135, then 4150 to 4155. 

SPY