JPMorgan Earnings Point to More Consumer Strength
...and more profits for swing traders after the breakout 🚀
The S&P futures are going for their fifth straight daily gain and are up in 8 of the last 12 sessions (where 2 of those 4 declines were less than 10 points).
The average decline of those four sessions? Just under 15 points. However, the average gain of the 8 rally days was almost double that, at 29.1 points.
My point is pretty simple: The bulls continue to buy the dip and ram the S&P 500 higher.
Delta reported earnings yesterday and issued solid guidance. Following JPMorgan’s robust top- and bottom-line beat this morning, CEO Jamie Dimon said the “US Economy Continues To Be Resilient; Consumer Balance Sheets Remain Healthy.”
At least by those metrics, US consumers aren’t worried about a recession. For a consumption-driven economy, these observations paint a fairly optimistic picture — even if it is a limited sample size.
Technical Edge
NYSE Breadth: 71% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
VIX: ~$13.50
I have to say, I am quite pleased with our open swings. DOCN is booming and the ARKK breakout is in full swing. We were a day early on TLT, but it’s been a workhorse and now we are roughly +$10 a share on JPM.
Remember how far the S&P has gone in a short period of time. Protect profits, inch up stops and manage open positions with a calm, cool demeanor!
SPY
Riding a hot streak, bulls have to have $451.75 circled on their charts. That’s the 161.8% upside extension from the larger, current range and the 78.6% retracement of the bear market decline.
Upside Levels: $450.38, $451.75
Downside Levels: $447.50, $448.50 (minor), $444
S&P 500 — ES Futures
Below we have the daily on the left and the 15-min chart on the right.
The daily shows the ES pushing its recent range’s 161.8% extension, with the larger current range’s 161.8% up at ~4571. It also highlights how attractive a dip to the 4493 to 4503 area would be.
If we zoom in to the 15-min chart, keep an eye on that ~4543 area, which was clear resistance during Globex. A dip to that area could draw in the buyers.
Upside Levels: 4551, 4571
Downside levels: 4543, 4518-20, 4493-4503
SPX
Upside Levels: 4517-23, 4535
Downside Levels: 4489, 4466, 4450-55
NQ
All prior upside levels achieved, except 15,855. Daily Chart + 30-min chart:
Upside Levels: 15,740 (30-min chart highlights this well). However, some hesitancy to go “daily-up” overnight — noted. 15,855
Downside Levels: 15,685, 15,400-440, 15,300-325
QQQ
If the Qs go daily-up over $380 and hold above that level, then $382.50 is in play. Otherwise, you know the drill. We are hyper-focused on a potential dip to the $370-72.50 zone.
Upside Levels: $380, $382.50
Downside Levels: $375.50, $370-72.50
Open Positions
Bold are the trades with recent updates.
Italics show means the trade is closed.
Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)
** = previous trade setup we are stalking.
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Down to Runners in GE, CAH, LLY, ABBV, AAPL, MCD & BRK.B. Now Add META, AVGO, UBER, CRM, AMZN, CVS and AMD.
DOCN — Long from $38.25 — Small trim at $39.75 to $40 and a second trim above $40.75. Trimmed more between $45 and $47 and down to ⅓ at $49.50+
Should have us down to a ⅓ position. We’re +28% from entry. Good job!
JPM — Retested the breakout zone and long. This is a longer term swing, but can consider trimming
Many are long from $143-145. I would consider a trim if we trade $153+ (doing so in the pre-market now), although I’d prefer $155+
Down to ½ if we see $157 to $157.50+
TLT — gap-filled at $99.65 — got our first trim at 100.75+ and second trim between $101.50 and $102.
Beautiful! ⅓ to ½ position now vs. a Break-even stop. Can consider exiting more here just to pay ourselves for the risk taken. Otherwise, look for $102.70 to $103 to get down to runners.
ARKK — Long from ~$46 — “something close to $50” ended up within two dimes of that level. Warranted a small trim, ~¼ to ⅓.
Ultimately, this will be a dip-buying name.
HSY — nice doji close in the zone — Longer-term swing. Daily-up over $243.15 could be the entry as well.
Go-To Watchlist
*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*
Relative strength leaders → (List is growing long!)
Growth stocks ARKK — DKNG, DOCNs, UPST, SHOP
LLY, CAH
AI stocks — NVDA, AMD, AVGO, ADBE, SMCI
Mega cap tech — MSFT, AAPL, META, CRM
Select retail — CMG, ELF, LULU
Homebuilders ITB — TOL, KBH, DHI
BRK.B
ABEV, DXCM
Cruise stocks — RCL, CCL, NCLH
DAL, DT, AMAT
Relative weakness leaders → m
CF, MOS
PFE (all vaccine gains now gone)
EL, FL, DG
Economic Calendar
