Last Week of Q2 on Tap as S&P Faces Test

There's a way to play both sides of the S&P, though.

Technical Edge 

• NYSE Breadth: 20% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 30% Advance

• VIX: ~$14.25

  • Traded a recent low of $12.73. That’s the lowest it’s traded since pre-pandemic in early 2020 (i.e. with stocks at ATHs)

The dip is exactly what we were looking for. Now the question is, will they turn the screws to the dip-buyers or will the bulls rescue the S&P after declining in four of the last five days? 

The ES is under modest selling pressure this morning, giving room for both sides of the tape to have their way. If we see further weakness this week, there’s an opportunity at 4350 for the ES and 4300 for the SPX.  

SPY

• Pivot: $432.50

• Upside Levels: $435, $437, $439 (gap fill and 61.8%)

• Downside Levels: $431, $429 to $430

S&P 500 — ES 

The ES is twirling on the 61.8% via the Globex low. My thought process is pretty simple. 

Either we hold the 4390s and regain 4400 to put 4425+ in play or we push down to 4350, where we find the prior breakout level, the 21-day moving average and the 78.6% retracement of the recent rally. 

• Pivot: 4390-4400

• Upside Levels: 4426, 4435, 4450

• Downside levels: 4375, 4345-50