Mondays Have Been Slow Days

Can we get a round of trims?

Technical Edge 

• NYSE Breadth: 81% Upside Volume (!)

• Advance/Decline: 86% Advance (!)

• VIX: ~$15 (On Friday it hit the lowest level since June 2021)

It’s hard to rush out and be a full-on bull on the open and through the day, particularly given the strong action we saw on Friday. A move above Friday’s high and a flush below it could put some short-term “risk-off” in play as we did have a strong finish on Friday. That said, I expect somewhat quiet action today.

This morning’s push looks like we should be able to make a small trim in SBUX. Our setup in bonds/TLT is still in play from last week (under “Open Positions”).

S&P 500 — ES

The ES burst over the 4242 area, which was major resistance since October. Bulls now want to see this level hold. On an intraday basis, we want to see 4275-ish hold as support. 

• Upside Levels: 4300, 4310, 4336, 4382

• Downside levels: 4267-75. I would really like to see this area hold on the dip.

SPY

How do we like that $427.50 extension? From here, keep an eye on Friday’s high. Above it puts the 61.8% retrace of the bear-market range in play at $429.61. 

• Upside Levels: $428.75, $429.50 to $430

• Downside Levels: $425.75 to $426.25, $425

Those are the downside levels in the SPY. The first levels is the H1 10-ema and the 50% to 61.8% retrace zone. The second level is the 78.6% retrace, one of my favorites, (but I doubt to see that today). 

Here’s what it’s like for the SPX:

SPX

• Upside Levels: 4290, 4311, 4321 

• Downside Levels: 4260-4266, 4250

NQ

I would like that 14,200 to 14,250 area on the NQ. AKA prior support + the 10-day ema. Friday’s range could contain any meaningful move today, so watch 14,628 on the upside and 14,468 on the downside. 

Open Positions 

• Bold are the trades with recent updates. 

• Italics show means the trade is closed.

• Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

• ** = previous trade setup we are stalking.