Opex Friday & A Setup in GE
GE has been a beast lately.
Technical Edge —
NYSE Breadth: 30% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 40% Advance
VIX: ~$20.50
It’s Opex day, so keep that in mind with today’s action. Typical Friday action could normally set us up for some sort of “Fry-day” type action, where the squeeze the markets higher.
However, Opex can also make the action a bit “clunky” and choppy.
Let’s look at the indices and a setup in GE.
S&P 500 — ES
Great hold of the 3900 to 3910 zone. Now back above 3920, let’s see if we can get 3940 to 3950.
That’s Wednesday’s low, Thursday high and the 10-day and 50-day moving averages. A move like that begins with a rotation through the Globex high of 3933.
On the downside, a break of 3912 — the Globex low and the 50% retrace — opens the door down to: 3900, 3891 and 3883.
That’s Thursday’s low, last week’s low and the 61.8% retrace.
SPY
If the SPY can regain $391 — and thus go daily up, while reclaiming the 10-day and 50-day moving averages — $393.75 to $395 is in play next.
On the downside, a break of $387.25 puts $386.25 in play. Below that puts $384.50 in play.
QQQ
Over $277.50 is bullish and puts $280+ back in play. Sub-$273.75 is bearish and puts $269 to $270 in play.
Careful of a “look above and fail” — aka the QQQ poking above $227.38 and then reversing.
GE
GE has been a beast. I’m a buyer if we test the 10-day moving average today. Stop at $74-ish. First target would be $78.50 to $79-ish.
Open Positions
A note: After talking to some members, I want to make the setups a bit more clear. We are a trade-ideas service, but want to make entries & exits simpler to understand. We will be sending more updates, a few educational pieces and looking for a way to make our setups more clear in how we are managing them.
Numbered are the trades that are open.
Bold are the trades with recent updates.
Italics show means the trade is closed.
— Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be, B/E or better stops.
From this latest round, that includes TLT, DE and FSLR.
COP — Long from $119, the 2x weekly-up. $124 to $127 could be a reasonable trim spot. Trimmed ¼ at the 50-day. We got our first trim & some messaged to say they got a second near yesterday’s HOD. (I didn’t).
If you didn’t get out with a B/E stop, then stay disciplined with your original stop. Mine was $116.
Tricky action so far. Feel free to cut down the position at any point while in the black or in the green. $116 stop proves prudent. $123.50+ and can cut down more.
TJX — I am long from $81.40. But yesterday was an inside day, so traders who are not long but want to be can always wait for an inside-and-up rotation over $82.10.
Targeting $83 as my first trim. $79 stop.
NKE — Long from $124-ish — I really don’t want to see this break $123. I am long calls (Feb. 130s) and will be out if the decline by 60%. $126.50 to $127 is first area for trim.
If bulls have any control of the market, NKE should be one that bounce.
Go-To Watchlist
*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*
Relative strength leaders →
SBUX
TJX, ULTA, NKE
CAT
BA & Airlines — AAL, DAL, UAL
GE
CAH
SMCI
MRK — weekly
FSLR
XLE — XOM, CVX, COP, BP, EOG, PXD — (Weekly Charts)
Economic Calendar
