Powell Comments on Tap This Afternoon.

S&P 500 sits a key point on the chart. Boil it down to simplicity.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 73% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 57% Advance 

• VIX: ~$22

We have a plethora of data today — everything from GDP data to JOLTs. But the big one is Powell’s 1:30 ET speech. 

The Fed’s tone remains hawkish, even though they are (seemingly) prepared to back off the rate hikes a bit. That will be bullish for stocks eventually, but the Fed wants to telegraph a clear message: They are not dovish. 

We’ll see how that impacts the tape today, which was quite choppy yesterday despite 73% upside volume on the NYSE. With the monthly jobs data due out tomorrow, it could be a choppy couple of days. 

S&P 500 — ES 

A lot is going to hinge on how the ES handles today’s data and Powell’s comments. I would preach patience. 

If we go with the KISS route, it’s really as simple as this: Above yesterday’s high (3990) without reversing lower opens the door back into 4000 and puts the 4050 area in play. 

A break of yesterday’s low (3941) opens the door down to the 3910 to 3920 area and the 21-day moving average. 

Let’s look at the S&P, Dow, Bonds, and AAPL.

SPY — Daily