Powell Speaks at 9 a.m. — Will He Help or Hurt?

Yesterday's bearish reversal doesn't help at all.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 63% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 61% Advance 

• VIX: ~$22

“Generally, I’m someone who would rather buy the pullbacks rather than the breakouts — especially in a bearish tape.”

After yesterday’s initial burst, I didn’t think that comment would be as prudent. We got off a couple of nice trims yesterday — in FSLR and DE — but COP is underwater and I tried buying the intraday dip as well on the 30-min timeframes and obviously that did not work. 

Today could be a bit binary with Powell at 9 a.m. ET. Let’s see what kind of tone he sets. 

S&P 500 — ES

Man, what a rollercoaster yesterday’s action was. The bulls stomped on the gas pedal early, then faced a heavy fade and closed back below 3920 and last week’s high of ~3929. 

So what now? We do what we said yesterday: Go level to level. On the downside, the plan was, “Below 3916-20 puts 3900 in play, then 3975 to 3980.”

We’re trading ~3900 now. If it can’t hold, 3975 to 3980 is on tap. Below that and my levels say 3960 and 3928-30. 

For now, we remain “in the box” and we’re back in the 3800 to 3920 range. We’ll see if Powell can change that. 

SPY