S&P 500 Looks at Its Worst Half-Year Start in 50 Years

Time to get ready for Q3.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 25% Upside Volume

• NASDAQ Breadth: 47% Upside Volume 

• VIX: ~$29.75

"If everything remains unchanged today we’re currently set to end H1 with the S&P 500 off to its worst H1 since 1970 in total return terms," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said.

Ouch.

I would say traders will be glad to put this quarter behind them, but who knows…Q2 certainly got a lot worse than Q1. For now though, let’s just focus on the day-to-day and finish out this quarter on a strong note!!

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Game Plan: S&P 500 (ES & SPY), Nasdaq (NQ & QQQ), Dollar

S&P 500 — ES 

If I’m being completely honest, the ES does not look all that bullish at the moment, but as we saw yesterday, the rebalance can make things tricky. 

It rallied hard off the June 17 low, but was rejected by the 21-day moving average and the 50% retracement. The goal for the bulls was simple: Hold 3807 and the 10-day moving average. 

So far, it’s doing neither, as it lost the 10-day on Tuesday, failed to reclaim it on Wednesday and is now pushing lower in Thursday’s Globex session. 

If we rally on the open, 3795 to 3805 and the 10-day are huge hurdles for the bulls. To clear them sets the ES up for