S&P Tries to Snap 7-Week Skid

Can they do it ahead of the holiday, likely on light volume?

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 83.3% Upside Volume (!)

• NASDAQ Breadth: 79% Upside Volume

• VIX: ~$28

We are not getting the sharp V-bottom response and I don’t think we will. We have been conditioned to those responses over the years when the Fed was accommodative. Now it’s hawkish, so this is more likely to be a traditional low, IMO. 

The S&P has had every reason to sell off over the last few days (poor data, etc.) and it hasn’t. It’s down 7 weeks in a row trying to avoid an eighth. Remember how that has played out over time. 

Game Plan — S&P (ES and SPY), Nasdaq (NQ and QQQ), Bonds, Dollar

Despite the elevated VIX, a handful of non-energy stocks are showing some nice setups. DLTR is the latest to rip higher off our list of relative strength stocks. Be sure to check it out!

S&P 500 — ES

You all are so well-versed in the ES levels you could probably write this part yourself. 

Now clearing 4,000 during Globex, holding above this level — and thus the 61.8% and yesterday’s high — is vital for the bulls. It puts 4056 and the 21-day moving average in play. Above that gives us last week’s high at 4095. 

On the downside, I’d love to hold the key 3950 area as support if we can’t hold 4000 or 3985. Below 3950 puts 3815 in play — yesterday’s low. 

What the bulls don’t want is to puke up all of its gains a day after the Fed, like it did earlier this month. 

SPY