Semiconductors, AAPL, Nasdaq All Opening Near Key Resistance

Will they reclaim these levels for fail?

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 88% Upside Volume (!)

• NASDAQ Breadth: 75% Upside Volume

• VIX: ~$24.50

Game Plan: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Semis, ARKK, AAPL

I was talking with a trading friend recently and he was asking questions about the market; Supply zones, trends, etc. 

I told him that it boiled down to a really simple concept: Acceptance or rejection. I tweeted about it the day after we spoke: 

Bret Kenwell @BretKenwell

At the end of the day, trading comes down to a simple principle: Is price being accepted or is it being rejected? When we rally to a key area, is it being accepted, reclaimed and built above or is it being rejected? Answer that question and is solves 90% of the technical work.

That’s really what it comes down to… is price being accepted at a new level or is it being rejected? 

We can see it unfolding in the S&P. 

Notice how price was rejected (on the downside) at 3740 as bulls continued to defend that level. No amount of complicated technical analysis is needed to make that observation. 

After struggling with 3800 to 3810 in the prior two sessions, there was price acceptance above this level on Friday. 

S&P 500 — ES 

Now we come into a very key area: 3900 to 3950 — will it accept or reject the ES?

The last three weeks’ worth of highs are as follows: 3900.75, 3922 and 3950. The 50-day moving average — which hasn’t been touched since April — is at 3928, while the 10-week moving average is 3942 and most recently acted as stout resistance in early June. 

If the ES can clear 3950 and stay above it, it could open the door to the 3985 to 4000 area. 

On the downside, keep an eye on 3865 to 3870. That encompasses Friday’s high and the Globex low. If we lose these levels, the 10-day is in play near 3850. 

S&P 500 — SPY