Setups in AMD and GE, as Tech Tries to Hold In
Last day of the holiday-shortened week is here.
Technical Edge —
NYSE Breadth: 35% Upside Volume
Advance/Decline: 36% Advance
VIX: ~$19.50
At the top of this week, we talked about patience and asking for a pullback in the market and that’s exactly what we’ve been getting. The Nasdaq has reset back to the 10-day ema, while the S&P holds in a bit better.
Thursday marks the last session of the week, before we enjoy a three-day weekend.
On that note, thank you for riding with us! It’s been a pleasure being able to write every morning for you and formulate a game plan that we can all be proud of. We don’t “bat a thousand” everyday, but we do our best.
Trade ‘em well, then remember to enjoy the long weekend.
S&P 500 — ES
Upside Levels: 4135-44, 4158-60, 4172-75
Downside levels: 4100, 10-day ema, 4076, 4060-65
SPY
I reiterate: I would absolutely love a test of the 10-day, 50-day combo and the 50% retracement. Now though, the 10-day has climbed (trading around $404).
H4 10-ema held firm well. Now we see.
Key Pivot: $408.70 on upside, $406 on downside
Upside Levels (SPY): $409.75 to $410.25 (last week + month’s high, 78.6% retrace), $412, $414.50 to $415
Downside Levels (SPY): $405.50 to $406, 10-day ema, $402 to $403
SPX
H4 10-ema held firm well. Now we see.
Upside Levels (SPY): 4100, 4127-4130, 4150
Downside Levels (SPY): 4072, 10-ema on daily, 4025-4030
NQ & QQQ
Both measures tagged the 10-day moving average and the prior breakout spot.
Let’s see if we can get some upside follow-through back into the 13,150+ and $317.50+ area, respectively.
AMD
I don’t want to put too much emphasis into tech here, but the AMD setup is too hard to ignore until the trend fails.
In this case, I’m watching the $87.50 to $89 zone. There we find the 10-week moving average, 161.8% downside extension and a prior breakout zone. Not to mention, we would have a nice ABC correction down to this area.
GE
On watch for daily-up rotation over $95.32 (look for some type of intraday close above this level, like a 15-minute close above this level). Ideal first target is $97+ for ½. $98+ would be the next target.
$93 to $93.50 would be our stop-loss if daily-up triggers.
Open Positions
Bold are the trades with recent updates.
Italics show means the trade is closed.
Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)
** = previous trade setup we are stalking.
FSLR, NVDA, QQQ, AAPL, down to runners. Congrats, all. Great sequence!
AAPL — for those that were swinging AAPL for the longer timeframe, we got our $165 area to trim into and as we continue to tip-toe higher, I’d say down to ½ size here or even less.
Going for $168.50 to $170 on the next tranche. Raise stops up to $160.
WYNN —Weekly-up over $110.73 — Should have trimmed ½ to ⅔ between $116 and $117. A nice initial reaction, but no dice on follow-through. Stopped at B/E and moving on.
CRM — Tagged and held ~$194 and the 10-day — $197 to $198 is ideal first trim. I’d like to get $199-$200 to get down to ½ or less, but that’s asking for a lot if tech is tried.
I am long calls instead of common, as it’s easier to manage the risk in this case. For those long common, you don’t want to see CRM break $192 to $192.50.
Go-To Watchlist
*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*
Relative strength leaders → Tech remains absolutely the strongest group lately.
NVDA, AMD
TSCO
MSFT, AAPL, META
PANW, FTNT
FSLR
GE → love this name if we can get a test of the 10-week ema
DKS, ULTA
AQUA
LMT, RTX
GOOGL, AVGO
ULTA & LULU
MELI
Economic Calendar
