Short Session, So Smart Trades Only!

Can bulls build on Wednesday's post-Fed strength?

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 65% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 61% Advance 

• VIX: ~$20.50

Short trading session, short game plan. 

At least for a day, the markets have handled the Fed news quite well. We all but had a retest of the 4050 level on the ES in the Globex session as bulls remain in control. Today could become yet another “thin to win” day, but it may also lack any real “oomph” due to the lack of participants.

We’ll see, but don’t take anything that isn’t a high-probability setup. Nothing worse than ruining a long holiday weekend with some stupid trades. If still long, continue to raise stops. 

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving and day off of the markets. Enjoy your long weekend and let’s get after it on Monday! :-) 

Lots of updating on the Opening Positions, below. 

S&P 500 — ES 

The ES traded 4049.25 on Thursday. For bulls, I’d love to see a regular-hours charge up toward this area and the 200-day moving average. 

Above this zone opens the door up toward 4100+. 

On the downside, a move below 4030 could put the low-4000s in play. Unless breadth is running sub-25% on upside volume, I’d expect this area to be support. 

SPY — Daily

“Let’s see if the SPY can maintain its bullish ways and get us a tag of last week’s high up at $402.31. Above that puts the 200-day in play, then the gap-fill up near $408.50.”

That was our approach on Wednesday morning and, now that we’ve seen 402.31, it’s still the same approach. 

I want to see if the SPY can maintain above last week’s high. On a pullback, see if the 10-ema is support on the 1-hour chart (below). 

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

• Numbered are the trades that are open. 

• Bold are the trades with recent updates. 

• Italics show means the trade is closed.

Open Positions — 5 of 6 we have now trimmed into profit and raised stops. A sign that the market has been much healthier overall lately. 

1. TLT — Trimmed on Wednesday’s push into the gap. Now ⅓ to ½ position here. Raise stops (B/E at minimum) and looking for $104.50 to $105 next. 

2. CCRN — down to ⅓ or less & raise stops. - Exit at $36+ or consider holding for $37.50 to $38 

   1. Navigating from here is up to your preference as we have hit several price targets and are up about 20% from our entry last week. 

3. QQQ — Just down to runners. #cheers

4. DIA — Just down to runners, if you want. #Cheers

5. Gold — This has been tricky. Looking to trim 1762 and got 1761.2 today. Hmm. I wouldn’t mind an exit here or at least a trim to reduce size when we’re in the green. I don’t like that it’s not reacting well enough. 

   1. I’m going down to ½ size and will cut on any push push over 1760. 

6. UUP — Trimmed again on continued fade. Down to ⅓ to ½. Trim on any new low below Wednesday’s low. 

   1. For DXY, I would love to exit the rest at the 200-day moving average. 

   2. Move stops to B/E at a minimum but into the green is ideal. 

Relative strength leaders →

1. LNG 

2. CAH 

3. TJX — new highs

4. SBUX

5. AMGN

• CCRN

• REGN

• CI

• MCD

• ENPH, FSLR — solar has strength 

• VRTX

• UNH

• MRK

• XLE — XOM, CVX, COP, BP, EOG, PXD

• SBUX

Economic Calendar

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!