The Calm Before The Fed-Inflation Storm

It's a calm Monday in a busy week.

Technical Edge 

• NYSE Breadth: 43% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 37% Advance

• VIX: ~$14.50

We don’t have much on tap today, but this week will get busy. We’ve got the CPI print on Tuesday, the Fed’s rate decision and commentary on Wednesday, and the quarterly Opex on Friday.

Fridays have been on a roll this year with the SPX finishing higher by about 65% of the time. However, that’s roughly in-line with Thursday, while both figures actually lag Monday, which has had a 68% win rate so far this year. 

That’s interesting and not what I expected. Even more interesting? 

Despite a ~⅔ win rate Thursday-Monday, the SPX actually sports a win rate of just 35% on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

We’re in a tough spot now for individual stock trades where the R/R just isn’t as attractive. Let’s see how today shakes out and if better opportunities emerge this week. 

Odd that the VIX was trading ~13 and change when we have such an eventful week on tap. 

SPY

• Upside Levels: $429.50, $432, $433.50

• Downside Levels: $428-$29, $426, $423 (gap fill)

S&P 500 — ES (September Contracts)