Triple-Witch Opex Is Here | EU Banks Cause a Stumble

FSLR with a trade.

Technical Edge — 

• NYSE Breadth: 72% Upside Volume

• Advance/Decline: 75% Advance

• VIX: ~$24.25

FSLR gave aggressive buyers an opening yesterday between $200 to $202. Conservative buyers have a daily-up potential after another inside day. If the market is going to stay hot, FSLR should tag along for the ride (further update below in the “Open Positions” tab). 

Some concerns out of Europe have trickled into US markets on Friday morning, causing a bit of a stumble from yesterday’s high. Let’s get to it with some charts.

S&P 500 — ES 

Pure “March Madness” would be to unwind all of yesterday’s gains and go weekly-down into the weekend. Not a prediction by any means, just an observation. 

The ES is coming into the session under some pressure, after tagging 4009 during Globex. Bulls did a great jobs reclaiming 3947 to 3960, opening the door to 4000, which it hit late yesterday. 

~3950 is key. That’s the 50% retrace from the Globex high to yesterday’s low, the Feb low and the 200-day moving average. 

• Downside Levels: 3962-ish, ~3950 (big), 3920. 

• Upside Levels: 4000 to 4010, 4020-25, 4060. 

SPY

$393 to $394 was huge this week and it was reclaimed on Thursday. Now under pressure, the SPY is back below this area on Friday morning.

Ideally, we will get some support right near current levels, around $391. That’s the 10-ema on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retrace of yesterday’s range. A bit more pressure could get us $390. 

A bounce could get us back to the $393 to $394 zone where it would be another big test. 

• Upside Levels (SPY): $393 to $394, $396.50, $397.50. 

• Downside Levels (SPY): $390 to $391, $387.75, $386.25, $384. 

SPX

Same as SPY, with following levels: 

• Upside Levels (SPY): 3935, 3965, 3980

• Downside Levels (SPY): 3915, 3900, 3965, 3945

Open Positions 

• Bold are the trades with recent updates. 

• Italics show means the trade is closed.

• Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)

• ** = previous trade setup we are stalking.

1. MRK — Long from ~$110 and (disappointing action as it was oh-so-close to our first target, missing by a few dimes) — Ideal stop is clearly defined near $105. Initial target for ⅓ trim is $112.50. 

2. Natural Gas, UNG or /NG — First target hit at UNG ~$10 and NG at 2.95 to 3.00. 

   1. Now /NG needs to hold the $2.40 to $2.50 mark in order for bulls to stick with this one.

   2. Trim NG at $2.80 to $2.90. UNG at $9.25

3. FSLR — long from $202 — Upside levels are $210.75, $214 and potentially $217+. If you are long from $200 to $202, can consider a small trim at daily up at $206.67. Stop at $198

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

Relative strength leaders → 

1. FSLR

2. NVDA, CRM

3. PANW, FTNT

4. AVGO

5. GE

• AQUA

• TSLA

• WYNN, LVS → would love a reset to the 10-week ema

• SBUX, ULTA

• AEHR → volatile!

• MELI

• BA

Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!